Samuel Leach Updates!

Wall Street has started keeping London hours, and I'm in two minds about it.

From today, options on the big US names, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla and the main S&P 500 fund, can trade from 7:30am New York time. That's lunchtime here, two hours before the US open, with a short extra session after the close too.

It doesn't stop there. The NYSE plans to run share trading 23 hours a day, five days a week, from 6 December.

For UK traders that's genuinely handy. You can react to news at a sensible hour rather than waiting for New York to wake up.

But more hours doesn't mean more opportunity. Early trading is thin, the gap between buying and selling prices is wider, and one big order can move things more than it should. I'd use those early sessions to manage risk, not to go hunting.

Netflix sat out today's tech bounce, slipping about 1% while the Nasdaq climbed, and I'm not surprised.

Its problem was never AI. It's attention. Jefferies reckons the average member now watches around 49 hours a month, down from 66 in 2023, and YouTube is taking a big slice of the evening.

The shares are down about a quarter this year, and the company has just cut roughly 1,000 jobs and shaken up its content leadership. That's a lot of change for a business that was meant to have it all worked out.

Results land this time tomorrow. Price rises can carry the numbers for a while, but what I want to see is proof people are still tuning in. If viewing looks steady, the shares have fallen far enough to bounce. If it doesn't, cheap can get cheaper.

The market has stopped treating every big AI spender the same.

Amazon is up nearly 5% today after Morgan Stanley named it a top pick and lifted its price target to $350. The bank reckons investors are underrating how fast Amazon's cloud business can grow from here.

Meta, which is also pouring enormous sums into AI, is drifting lower and sits back around $700 ahead of its results on Wednesday.

That's the split I'd keep an eye on this week. Big AI budgets get forgiven when investors can see where the money comes back, and Amazon's cloud arm gives them that. Meta has until Wednesday night to show its working.

The cheap oil that paid for this morning's bounce has quietly left the building.

Brent was down around 2% first thing, helped by Trump pausing new Russia sanctions. It has since wiped all of that out and is back above $110, up on the day. Iran's attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz haven't stopped, with at least 15 container ships hit in the past ten days, and the latest words from Tehran on Hormuz were more combative, not less.

The odd part is that US tech hasn't flinched. The Nasdaq is still up more than 1%, as if the oil relief never mattered.

I think it did. Cheaper energy was the main reason futures turned higher overnight. If crude holds above $110 into Netflix tomorrow and Tesla on Wednesday, I'd expect this rally to find the going a lot harder.

Tech stocks are bouncing hard today. Bitcoin has barely noticed.

It's sat around $82,000 for most of the day while the Nasdaq has climbed well over 1%. Money has been leaving the US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum funds for three weeks running, and October withdrawals are close to $1 billion.

There's a calendar quirk doing the rounds too. Bitcoin rose in 10 of the last 13 Octobers, but it's down for the month so far and could post back-to-back red Octobers for the first time since 2011 and 2012.

I wouldn't buy or sell anything because of the month on the calendar. What I would notice is crypto sitting out a risk-on day. If it can't keep up when the mood is good, it's fair to ask who the next buyer is.

Wall Street is cheering the tech bounce. America's housebuilders aren't joining in.

The builders' confidence index fell to 29 this month, its lowest since June 2012 and worse than economists expected. Anything under 50 means more builders think conditions are poor than good, and we're a long way under.

The problem is borrowing costs. The US 10-year yield has crept back up today after last week's big fall, and mortgage rates tend to follow it. Buyers can't stretch any further, so builders either cut prices or wait.

Chip stocks can bounce in an afternoon. Houses don't get built that quickly. Housing shows how high rates are really landing on ordinary households, and right now they're landing heavily. Worth keeping an eye on while everyone else watches Nvidia.

Wall Street has found its feet. Europe simply hasn't followed.

The Nasdaq is up more than 1% and the S&P is green, yet the FTSE, DAX and CAC are all heading for a red close. The Stoxx 600 is on course for its worst day in more than a week, with Paris and Milan leading the way down.

The worry over here has moved on from AI. It's about government debt and angry streets. France's riots took the weekend headlines, and now there have been clashes in Milan too. Bonds and the euro are being sold again, and the banks are taking the brunt, from BNP and SocGen to Deutsche and Lloyds.

A bounce in American chip stocks doesn't fix any of that. I'd want to see European bonds calm down before I trusted a recovery on this side of the Atlantic. Until then, Europe is carrying its own baggage, and the close at half four is unlikely to be pretty.

This rebound still looks one-legged to me.

Nasdaq futures are up hard into the US cash open while Dow futures are still red on the day. Same split we saw all morning. The chips bounced. Broader America hasn't really bought the story yet.

Fear has come down a long way from Friday, and that always tempts people to call the all-clear early. I wouldn't. A bounce led by a handful of names after a rough tech week is relief, not a regime change.

Netflix tomorrow night is the first real check. Meta and Tesla on Wednesday are the ones that decide whether those AI spend nerves actually calm down. Until the Dow joins in, I'm treating this as a bounce to respect, not one to trust.

Not the attention any bank wants from Threadneedle Street.

The Financial Times reported this morning that the Bank of England's regulator, the PRA, is looking at whether Barclays traders treated illiquid private credit loans as if they were easy to sell. That matters because assets a bank can sell quickly need less capital held against them than loans it's stuck with. It follows a complaint from an insider earlier this year, and Barclays says it takes its regulatory obligations seriously but doesn't comment on dealings with regulators.

The shares are down about 3.5%, one of the weaker names in a FTSE that's already having a poor day.

For me, the size of any fine isn't the point. Private credit is a roughly $2 trillion market that grew up fast and quietly, and regulators are now poking at how banks finance it. Last week's AI selloff was partly about how much debt is paying for all those data centres, so investors are already twitchy about borrowing they can't see. A story like this gives them another reason.

Nothing has been proven and this could come to very little. But I'd keep an eye on the other big lenders to private credit funds, and on whether this stays one bank's accounting question or turns into a wider one for the sector.

Last week everyone wanted out of chips. This morning they want back in, but the companies buying all those chips aren't joining the party.

Nvidia is up nearly 2% before the open, and Micron, AMD and Intel are up between about 3.5% and 5%. CoreWeave and Nebius are bouncing too, after a report that Nvidia is helping the stronger AI cloud firms with credit and leases. After CoreWeave lost about a quarter of its value last week, that's a welcome bit of support.

Meta, on the other hand, is a touch lower, and Tesla and Netflix are flat. That's the bit I'd pay attention to. The chipmakers only do well if these companies keep writing big cheques, and we won't find out until Meta reports on Wednesday evening.

Nasdaq futures are up about 1.2% and the VIX has eased back to about 18.5, so the mood is better. Europe hasn't got the memo, mind, with the DAX and CAC both down more than 1%.

Today I'm watching whether the chip gains survive the first hour of proper trading in New York. If they fade, last week isn't over. If they hold and the big spenders start to follow, it looks a lot more like a genuine recovery.

Full US Open brief here:
https://www.samuelandcotrading.com/us-open-market-brief-19-october-2026-the-chipmakers-bounced-their-customers-didnt/

Just when you thought Brexit had gone quiet, it's back on the agenda.

The IPPR, an influential think tank close to the Labour party, published a report this morning arguing that full EU membership should be the UK's medium-term goal. It follows a similar call from the Tony Blair Institute a few weeks ago, and the IPPR's own polling has 52% backing a return against 29% who want to stay out.

The pound hasn't moved on it, and I don't think it should yet. Think tank reports don't shift currencies. Policy does. The real date is 20 November, when Andy Burnham has promised to set out options for the UK's long-term relationship with the EU at a summit in Brussels, with rejoining likely to be among them.

For me, there are two sides to this as a trader. Closer trade with our biggest market would be good news for sterling and for UK-focused companies over time. But a fresh in-out fight would mean years of uncertainty, and markets dislike that far more than either answer. We've seen that film before.

With the Budget next week, UK politics is going to be loud for a while. I'd keep an eye on the pound and the domestic names in the FTSE 250 rather than the big multinationals.

Gold is caught between two crowds, and it goes a long way to explaining why the metal keeps stalling just shy of $4,200.

The patient money is still buying. Gold-backed ETFs have added to holdings for 13 weeks in a row, according to Bloomberg, and the World Gold Council described September as highly unusual because ETF holdings rose while the price fell more than 8%. The fast money in futures went the other way and sold hard.

What's shifted today is the Fed. Kevin Warsh declined to push back on rate expectations before the blackout, and CME FedWatch now puts the chance of an October hike at around 15%. December is still priced at close to 90%, and that's the lid. Gold pays no interest, so every bit of hike talk makes it harder to hold.

For me, gold stays boxed in until the Fed blinks on December. A clean move above $4,200 and it gets interesting again. But with the price still about a quarter below January's record and steady buyers underneath, I'd rather watch the floor than chase the ceiling.

Forget oil for a minute. Helium is the shortage hardly anyone is talking about, and it matters far more than the party balloons suggest.

CBS's 60 Minutes reported last night that supply is still badly squeezed after the Strait of Hormuz closed in February and Iranian strikes in March damaged Qatar's Ras Laffan hub, which produces about a third of the world's helium. Spot prices have reportedly tripled, and the Qataris expect full repairs to take at least three years.

Why should traders care? Chipmakers use helium for cooling and leak checks, and at least one US chipmaker has already been put on allocation by a supplier, which is a polite word for rationing. MRI scanners rely on it too.

For me, this is one more drag on the chip supply chain just as AI stocks come off their roughest week in months. It won't sink the sector on its own, but it adds cost at the worst possible moment. The quiet winners are the industrial gas firms. Linde reports on 29 October and Air Products on 5 November, so their pricing comments will be worth a listen.

The gilt market might be the only corner of Britain actually looking forward to the Budget.

Bloomberg reports that M&G, Ninety One and a handful of other big fund houses have been buying UK government bonds ahead of John Healey's first Budget on 28 October. The bet is simple. If the Chancellor keeps his promise of fiscal discipline and avoids surprises, yields could ease and gilts get a relief rally.

I can see the logic. Ten-year gilts are still sitting around 5.4 per cent, some of the dearest borrowing in the developed world, so there is room to fall if the numbers look credible. The Bank of England has already made clear it wants a Budget the market can trust.

The catch is that this is a bet on a boring Budget, and the headroom is thin. Any unfunded spending and the reverse comes quickly, as 2022 showed. I'd want the detail before getting excited, and I'd keep an eye on mortgage rates, because gilt yields feed straight into them.

Paris is having the kind of Monday you don't put on a postcard.

The weekend's cost-of-living marches across France turned into riots in several cities, with shops looted and buildings set alight. Macron addressed the nation on Sunday to separate the protesters from the looters, but the market isn't waiting to see how it settles. The CAC 40 is down about 1% in early trade, well behind Frankfurt and London, and the euro has slipped against both the dollar and sterling.

For me, this is less about one bad weekend and more about what it says heading into next year's presidential election, with Marine Le Pen leading the polls. Investors will put up with noise in the streets. What they start charging for is a government that looks short of authority.

I'd watch whether French shares keep lagging once the US is open. If they do, that's political risk creeping back into the price, not just Monday nerves.

London has quietly been the safe place to sit while tech has a rough patch.

On Friday the Nasdaq fell more than 2% and the FTSE 100 still finished higher. This morning the roles look like they are swapping. US tech futures are bouncing after last week's rout, while the FTSE is expected to open slightly lower.

For me, that is exactly what you get from an index packed with banks, miners, oil majors and big consumer names, and very little tech. It will look dull on the days the Nasdaq rebounds, and it earns its keep on the days it doesn't.

Once trading starts, I'd watch whether London holds steady if the US bounce fades. If it does, that's a sign investors still want the shelter.

The AI wobble has moved out of share prices and into currencies.

Taiwan's central bank made a rare mid-session statement this morning after the Taiwan dollar briefly slipped past 32.5 to the US dollar. It said foreign investors pulled a net of nearly $18bn out of Taiwan shares last week, and that it will step in to stop the currency swinging too far.

For me, this is the part of the AI selloff worth watching. US futures are bouncing on cheaper oil, which is welcome, but when foreign money heads for the exit in Asia's chip heartland that quickly, it is not a mood that flips on one decent night.

Into the London open, I'd keep an eye on how chip names and Asia-heavy funds trade. A calmer Taiwan dollar would be the first sign the scramble is easing.

Tech's worst week in months was about how you fund the AI buildout, not whether anyone wants the chips. Monday's bounce is coming from cheaper oil, not a clean bill of health.

Trump waved through a pause on tough new Russia energy sanctions and Brent slipped toward $108. US futures turned higher overnight, and Asia clawed back most of a nasty open in Tokyo and Seoul. Hong Kong is shut for the holiday, so there is no Hang Seng read on the mood.

China's GDP beat at 4.5 per cent barely moved markets. The Fed is in blackout until the end of October, so there is nobody official to talk markets through a wobble.

This week is stacked with Tesla, Meta, Netflix and SpaceX. That is the real test of whether Friday's credit scare lasts. I'd treat the oil bounce as useful relief, not an all-clear.

Full Morning Brief here:
https://www.samuelandcotrading.com/morning-market-brief-19-october-2026-softer-oil-opens-a-bounce/

America's government has finished its financial year nearly $2 trillion in the red.

The Treasury said on Friday the deficit for the year to the end of September came to $1.99 trillion, up about 12% on last year. Only 2020 and 2021, the pandemic years, were worse. It works out at roughly 6% of the whole US economy, and it is the 25th year in a row Washington has spent more than it brought in.

What bothers me is the timing. The pandemic deficits had an obvious reason behind them. This one came in a year when the government took in record sums, and spending still climbed faster.

All that borrowing has to be funded by selling government bonds, and the more there is to sell, the higher the return buyers want. That goes a long way to explaining why the US 10-year yield is still sitting around 5%, which feeds through to mortgages, company borrowing and, in the end, share prices.

Nobody in Washington seems in much of a hurry to fix it. Markets can ignore that for a long while, right up until they can't.

Cash has spoken for an hour. Soft-labour is still dead. Tech just refused to die with it.

Cash bell in minutes — futures already did the soft-labour autopsy. Now we find out if cash agrees.

You know the print: August NFP +162k vs ~56k, July revised to +21k from -23k, private +127k, unemployment still 4.1%, wages +0.3% MoM / +3.1% YoY (at consensus). Hiring was loud. Wages were not a fresh scare on their own.

Marks now (Yahoo, ~14:21 BST): ES ~7,736 versus ~7,755 prior close — still soft into the open. Gold futures took another step toward ~$4,433 after dumping from the ~$4,51x handle around the release. Silver ~$65.8. US 10y ~4.79%. Dollar index ~99.3. Cable ~1.351, euro ~1.161. Brent still ~$94.5. VIX ~14.2. Interesting split: NQ is basically flat while ES and the Dow future are softer — tech holding better than the broad tape.

Plain English: the soft-labour sleeve is gone in futures. Metals already admitted it. Rates and the dollar firmed and then parked. Oil did not collapse, which matters because ISM Services Prices Paid is still 72.6 — that inflation floor did not leave with the labour story.

What’s next: first hour of US cash. Watch whether ES extends the fade or whether buyers show up on “wages weren’t hot.” For September Fed, Waller already flagged August inflation as his swing factor — so next week’s CPI/PPI still decide hold vs hike more than this one payrolls print. Hot hiring just put the hike tail back on the table.

US Open brief: https://www.samuelandcotrading.com/us-open-market-brief-4-september-2026-nfp-162k/

That soft-labour park just got run over — and gold did not wait for the cash open to admit it.

August NFP printed +162k versus about 56k. July revised to +21k from -23k. Private payrolls +127k versus 45k. Unemployment still 4.1%. Wages +0.3% MoM / +3.1% YoY — right on consensus. So the hiring level is loud; the wage line is not inventing a new inflation scare on its own.

Marks now (Yahoo, ~13:50 BST): ES ~7,742 after sitting near 7,762 into the print. Gold futures dumped toward ~$4,440 from the ~$4,51x handle we had around the release. Silver ~$66. US 10y up to ~4.80% from ~4.76%. Dollar index ~99.3. Cable ~1.350, euro ~1.160. Brent still ~$95. VIX still ~14.2 — equities faded, they did not panic.

Plain English: Thursday bought Waller and soft ADP. Today’s payrolls say the labour cooling story was overdone. Equities gave back the park. Rates and the dollar firmed. Metals got the cleaner reprice. Oil did not collapse, which matters because ISM Services Prices Paid is still 72.6 — that inflation floor did not leave with the soft-labour sleeve.

What’s next: US cash open 14:30 UK. Watch whether ES extends the fade or whether “wages weren’t hot” buyers show up into the close. For September Fed, Waller already said August inflation is his swing factor — so next week’s CPI/PPI still decide hold vs hike more than this one payrolls print. Hot hiring just put the hike tail back on the table.

US Open brief: https://www.samuelandcotrading.com/us-open-market-brief-4-september-2026-nfp-162k/

That soft-labour bid just ran into a brick wall.

August NFP: +162k versus about 56k expected. July revised to +21k from -23k. Private payrolls +127k versus 45k. Unemployment still 4.1%. Wages +0.3% MoM / +3.1% YoY — at consensus, not a wage spike. The hiring level is the story.

Tape after the print (Yahoo ~13:35): ES back ~7,753–7,755 from the ~7,762 park. Cable ~1.350 from ~1.353. Euro ~1.160 from ~1.162. Gold ~$4,513. Brent still high-$94s (~$94.7). Dollar index ~99.04.

Thursday bought Waller and soft ADP. Today’s print puts Prices Paid at 72.6 and sticky oil back in the driver’s seat into the mid-September Fed. Cash open 14:30.

https://www.samuelandcotrading.com/us-open-market-brief-4-september-2026-nfp-162k/

Who’s liking my updates? Keeping you in the loop with my market watch?

Two and a half hours to payrolls and nobody wants to express a view.

Marks now (Yahoo, ~11:05 BST): ES still ~7,758 near Thursday's 7,748 cash close. Gold futures ~$4,514 after the morning reclaim near $4,528. Brent ~$95.5, WTI ~$91.1. EUR ~1.162, GBP ~1.352, USD/JPY ~156.4, DXY ~99.1. US 10y glued at ~4.76%. FTSE ~10,833. VIX ~14.2.

That is the tell into the print. Equities are babysitting Waller. The gold reclaim got sold again. Oil is still the inflation floor under any dovish labour read. FX has barely twitched since Europe's soft demand stack printed earlier.

London already did its bit: UK construction PMI 44.3 (miss vs 45.5) and Eurostat July euro-area retail -0.6% MoM (street wanted about +0.3%). Cable and the euro treated both as noise. So the book is not pricing a European demand shock. It is waiting for US labour.

NFP is 13:30 UK. Street cluster roughly +55k to +65k after July's -23k, unemployment mostly seen near 4.1%, wages ~+0.3% MoM. I care more about the unemployment rate and the revisions than whether the headline lands on 58k. Near-consensus keeps next week's CPI and PPI as the September Fed vote. A hot print with firm wages puts the hike tail back on. Another miss and this equity hold gets a second wind, with Brent mid-$95s still telling you how far the market is allowed to go dovish.

Two and a half hours to payrolls and nobody wants to express a view.

Marks now (Yahoo, ~11:05 BST): ES still ~7,758 near Thursday's 7,748 cash close. Gold futures ~$4,514 after the morning reclaim near $4,528. Brent ~$95.5, WTI ~$91.1. EUR ~1.162, GBP ~1.352, USD/JPY ~156.4, DXY ~99.1. US 10y glued at ~4.76%. FTSE ~10,833. VIX ~14.2.

That is the tell into the print. Equities are babysitting Waller. The gold reclaim got sold again. Oil is still the inflation floor under any dovish labour read. FX has barely twitched since Europe's soft demand stack printed earlier.

London already did its bit: UK construction PMI 44.3 (miss vs 45.5) and Eurostat July euro-area retail -0.6% MoM (street wanted about +0.3%). Cable and the euro treated both as noise. So the book is not pricing a European demand shock. It is waiting for US labour.

NFP is 13:30 UK. Street cluster roughly +55k to +65k after July's -23k, unemployment mostly seen near 4.1%, wages ~+0.3% MoM. I care more about the unemployment rate and the revisions than whether the headline lands on 58k. Near-consensus keeps next week's CPI and PPI as the September Fed vote. A hot print with firm wages puts the hike tail back on. Another miss and this equity hold gets a second wind, with Brent mid-$95s still telling you how far the market is allowed to go dovish.

Eurozone retail just printed soft and the euro acted like nobody was home.

Eurostat, July: seasonally adjusted retail trade volume -0.6% MoM in the euro area and -0.4% in the EU. Street was looking for about +0.3% after June's originally reported -0.3%. June itself got revised to +0.2% MoM. Non-food (ex fuel) was the drag at -1.4% MoM. Food held +0.4%. Germany took the ugly seat at -3.4% MoM. Year-on-year the euro area is still +0.6%.

Earlier London: UK construction PMI 44.3 in August versus 45.5 expected and 44.7 in July. Still deep in contraction, just a touch softer than the street wanted. Cable did not flinch then either.

Marks (Yahoo, ~10:02 BST): EUR ~1.163, GBP ~1.353, USD/JPY ~156.4, DXY ~99.1, gold ~$4,522 (off the ~$4,528 reclaim), Brent ~$95.1, WTI ~$90.7, ES ~7,761, FTSE ~10,822, US 10y ~4.76%, VIX ~14.2.

So London gave you two soft demand prints before lunch and FX refused to price them as a regime change. The book is still US labour at 13:30 UK. Street cluster roughly +55k to +65k after July's -23k, unemployment mostly seen near 4.1%, wages ~+0.3% MoM.

I care more about the unemployment rate and the revisions than the headline. Soft European consumption colour sits under Brent mid-$95s as the inflation floor, but equities are still babysitting Waller into the print. Near-consensus keeps next week's CPI and PPI as the September Fed vote. A hot payrolls print puts the hike tail back on. Another miss and this equity hold gets a second wind.

Gold just bought back the London fade. Oil refused to come with it.

Marks now (Yahoo, ~09:22 BST): gold futures ~$4,528 after ~$4,509 mid-morning and a ~$4,517 London open. Brent ~$95.1 from the mid-$95s. WTI ~$90.7. ES still ~7,760 near Thursday's 7,748 cash close. EUR ~1.163, GBP ~1.354, USD/JPY ~156.3, DXY ~99.1. US 10y stuck at ~4.76%. FTSE ~10,819. VIX ~14.2.

So the 08:00 split rotated. Equities are still babysitting Waller. The hedge reclaimed about twenty dollars. Brent slipped off the mid-$95s, which softens the inflation floor under any dovish labour read. Quiet tape, not a fresh projectile.

Next London prints: UK construction PMI ~09:30 (July was 44.7), then Eurozone July retail ~10:00 (street ~+0.3% MoM after June's -0.3%). Neither rewrites the Fed book. NFP is 13:30 UK. Street roughly +55k to +65k after July's -23k, unemployment mostly seen steady near 4.1%, wages ~+0.3% MoM.

I still care more about the unemployment rate and the revisions than the headline. Near-consensus keeps next week's CPI and PPI as Waller's September vote. A hot print puts the hike tail back on. Another miss and this equity hold gets a second wind, with gold already showing you who was nervous into the data window.

London just inherited Thursday's soft-labour equity bid. The hedge did not come with it.

Marks now (Yahoo, ~08:05 BST): ES ~7,756 (cash closed 7,748). Gold futures ~$4,509 after ~$4,516 into the open and yesterday's ~$4,558 poke. Silver ~$67.1. Brent ~$95.7, WTI ~$91.6. EUR ~1.163, GBP ~1.354, USD/JPY ~156.3, DXY ~99.0. US 10y still ~4.76%. VIX ~14.3. Nikkei finished around 65,021.

Equities are still babysitting Waller. Gold keeps fading. Oil is still the inflation floor under any dovish labour read. That is the second-order tape into Europe, not Destatis and not a fresh catalyst.

Calendar before the US print: Eurozone July retail sales ~10:00 UK (TE street ~+0.3% MoM after June's -0.3%). UK construction PMI ~09:30. Neither rewrites the Fed book. NFP is 13:30 UK. Street cluster roughly +55k to +65k after July's -23k, unemployment mostly seen steady near 4.1%, wages ~+0.3% MoM. Canada employment hits the same timestamp if you trade the dollar broadly.

I care about the unemployment rate and the revisions as much as the headline. Near-consensus leaves next week's CPI and PPI as Waller's September vote. A hot print puts the hike tail back on. Another miss and this equity hold gets a second wind, with Brent still mid-$95s telling you how far the market is allowed to go dovish.